The military dictatorship in Myanmar has reportedly authorized the release of pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest for 15 of the past 21 years. Some 2,000 of her supporters have gathered in anticipation of the release, which is expected on Saturday. BBC (11/12) ,Bloomberg Businessweek (11/12)
No sports events offered receipts to aid victims at risk from cholera and other diseases. It was as if the great Pakistani deluge were happening in another dimension."
Middle East scholar, blogger Juan Cole. Click here for the full story.
"It certainly does not get the same kind of attention as diseases like HIV/AIDS, Malaria or Tuberculosis, but Pneumonia is no less [ravaging] on the people that it infects. But there is one solution in the works that may transform the fight against respiratory illness."
Security Council reform to take time The U.S. endorsement of India for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council is not likely to make it happen anytime soon, officials say. Although expansion is justified to better represent the world as it is, leadership is lacking in the powerful body, which has resisted reform for some 20 years. Bloomberg (11/11) , The Economist (11/11)
IAEA issues assurance on confidentiality Information gathered as part of International Atomic Energy Agency investigations remains confidential, agency officials said today. The statement came just days after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remarked the IAEA would pass information on to Washington if Iran permitted wider inspections of its nuclear program. Reuters(11/12)
UN seeks aid to curb cholera in Haiti A spike in the number of deaths attributed to cholera in Haiti has led the United Nations to call for an additional $164 million in aid. Health officials fear the disease, which has reached the country's capital, will spread throughout the camps housing more than a million earthquake survivors. BBC (11/12) , The New York Times (free registration)/Reuters (11/11)
Prevention can trim disaster costs, says report A joint report released Thursday by the United Nations and the World Bank supports the adage that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. It estimates that annual losses due to natural disasters are likely to triple over ensuing decades, and might even be greater because of climate change. AlertNet.org (11/11)
mHealth usage to hit 500 million by 2015 By 2015, an estimated 500 million people will be using mobile health applications as part of their health care regimen, according to a report released for the Washington mHealth summit. The report found that 43% of applications currently in use are designed for medical personnel, providing evidence of the potential of mHealth for personal and institutional use. FastCompany.com (11/11)
Private giving in recent disasters reveals paradox The more death and drama, the greater the amount of humanitarian aid from private donors. This is borne out in statistics of giving for earthquake-stricken Haiti, where many died, and flood-stricken Pakistan, where survivors are suffering a slow agony, which have reached $1.1 billion and less than $300 million, respectively. The New York Times (free registration) (11/10)
Rare turtles are hunted despite Madagascar ban A study has revealed that up to 16,000 of the world's rare turtles are being harvested illegally each year in a remote region in southwestern Madagascar. Marine turtles are protected by the country's laws, but authorities do not enforce the ban on harvesting because it is a long-standing cultural tradition, and the coastline is extremely long. The Guardian (London) (11/12)
Chinese activists face psychiatric "treatment" Human-rights activists are raising concerns that forced confinements in mental institutions are on the rise in China as local officials come under pressure to control any social unrest. A lack of independent oversight or legal protections helps officials forcibly commit activists to institutions, sometimes for years, where they face unmonitored psychiatric care that can include electroshock treatments. The New York Times (free registration) (11/11)
Sudanese head south before referendum Thousands of southern Sudanese are looking to leave the country's north ahead of a January referendum in independence, over fears the vote may spark violence. Southern Sudanese officials have been trying to procure transportation for those who want to head south. Voters in the south are widely expected to back independence from Khartoum. BBC (11/12)
New leaders are emerging in scientific research Asian countries including China and Singapore are increasing their spending on scientific research and development, and challenging decades of supremacy in the field by the North America, Europe and Japan, according to a report from UNESCO. In 1990, the three traditional leaders accounted for more than 95% of the world's research -- a figure that dropped to 76% by 2007. The Economist (11/11)
As budget deficits have some politicians and citizens demanding reduced U.S. government spending, what do you see as the best argument for continued support of the UN?
Investing in global development is essential to U.S. national security interests
37.54%
For every $1 we invest in the UN, we receive $1.50 back through purchase of American jobs, goods and services
26.81%
Investing in the UN spreads the burden of collective security
18.30%
Disease knows no borders, so investments in global health help protect people in America and other countries
UN Wire is a free service sponsored by the United Nations Foundation which is dedicated to supporting the United Nations' efforts to address the most pressing humanitarian, socioeconomic and environmental challenges facing the world today.
The ghost at the feast Topic: g20, obama, bbc news
by Judith Stein and Xian Wan, B
BC News, The Economist, Financial Times, for the BBC's Biodun Iginla
Nov 12th 2010, 14:11 by The Economist | SEOUL
The G20 summit in Seoul forged a compromise between the world’s most powerful leaders. But it was a decision made in Washington, DC, that made the biggest splash
INSIDE the cavernous Coex centre in Seoul, where the leaders of the G20 group of nations gathered for their fifth summit on November 11th-12th, Korean staff played their role of hosts with great enthusiasm. In quiet moments, some queued up outside digital photo booths to have their picture taken with an image of President Barack Obama superimposed on top. The agreement the G20 leaders sealed, after what one of them described as “late nights and tough talks” between their negotiators, was also a bit of a montage. All members worry about an unbalanced recovery, with big trade surpluses in some countries and big deficits elsewhere; but they do not yet agree on its underlying cause or solution. In their declaration they nonetheless strived to appear in the same frame.
The leaders asked their technical advisors, including the IMF, to come up with “indicative guidelines” that would help to identify big and persistent imbalances. America’s Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, had once hoped this guideline could be very simple: current-account deficits or surpluses (which are roughly equivalent to trade deficits or surpluses) should not exceed 4% of GDP. But that cap did not fit all heads. Australia tends to run big deficits financed by heavy foreign investment in the country’s mines; Saudi Arabia and Russia sensibly accumulate big surpluses whenever the oil price soars. And although Chinese officials expect its surplus to narrow from over 10% in 2007 to less than 4% over the next 3-4 years, it was not ready to turn that forecast into a binding commitment.
So rather than one number, the guidelines will consist of a “range of indicators”. It is not yet clear what the members have in mind. The IMF already supervises the so-called Mutual Assessment Process (MAP), which crunches lots of numbers to make sure that the G20s’ macro-targets add up. (It is not, for example, possible for everyone to increase their net exports to everyone else.) In addition, the fund already uses three different methods to check whether its members’ exchange rates are misaligned. The more indicators the G20 chooses, the more degrees of freedom its members will enjoy. If the Seoul declaration is to count as progress, therefore, the guidelines will have to constrain members more than the MAP already does, even if they do not constrain them as much as Mr Geithner’s magic number would.
The leaders also repeated a line agreed by their finance ministers and central bankers last month, which obliges advanced economies with reserve currencies (such as the dollar, euro and yen) to spare a thought for emerging economies hurt by exchange-rate volatility. But that promise will seem empty to those members, including Brazil, China and South Korea, unnerved by the Federal Reserve’s decision this month to print another $600 billion of the world’s reserve currency in an effort to revive the American economy. The decision will encourage capital to flow elsewhere, weakening the dollar and putting upward pressure on the real, yuan and won.
The Fed’s policy of “quantitative easing” contributed to a qualitative hardening of tone among the summiteers. Germany’s finance minister accused the Americans of hypocrisy—"It's inconsistent for the Americans to accuse the Chinese of manipulating exchange rates and then to artificially depress the dollar exchange rate by printing money," he said. Of course, if the Fed’s policy succeeds, it will raise America’s price level, blunting America’s competitiveness, even as the dollar’s decline sharpens it. But one cannot be confident that any of the G20’s leaders—except India’s Manmohan Singh, an economist by training—understands the difference between the nominal exchange rate and the real one.
To help them cope with inflows of money, emerging economies may introduce capital controls. But they won’t necessarily call them that. The Seoul summit endorsed “carefully designed macro-prudential measures” for countries that had already exhausted other options, such as adding to their foreign-exchange reserves, or simply letting their exchange rate rise. The summiteers probably had in mind the kind of measures introduced by their host nation, South Korea, in June. It imposed ceilings on banks’ holdings of foreign-exchange derivatives, because the banks tend to hedge those positions by borrowing too much from abroad.
Such measures do not always work for long: South Korea’s ceilings were set as a multiple of the banks’ capital, so the banks just raised their capital. But emerging economies are likely to keep trying. Certainly, whatever the Seoul Declaration says, it is hard to imagine the Fed paying much heed to emerging economies—or any other economy for that matter—when setting monetary policy. President Obama remains a popular and photogenic figure in the conference halls of Seoul. But Mr Bernanke cast the longest shadow over the summit.
Editor's note: Thanks to jude22, in the comments section below, for reminding readers of Stephen Harper's credentials as academic economist. Manmohan Singh, who holds a doctorate in economics from Oxford University and also taught economics there, would probably be the best-qualified leader of a G20 country to run a seminar on exchange rates. But Mr Harper would doubtless make a good teaching assistant were Mr Singh to be unavailable.
Reports are coming out of Burma saying the military authorities have signed an order authorising the release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
But hopes that the Nobel laureate would be freed on Friday appear to be fading.
A leader of her National League for Democracy told 2,000 supporters gathered at the party headquarters to go home and return on Saturday.
Ms Suu Kyi has been detained for 15 of the past 21 years, and her house arrest term expires on Saturday.
There has been increased police activity outside her house in Rangoon, but as yet no official confirmation of any release order.
However, Ms Suu Kyi is not expected to accept a conditional release if it excludes her from political activity.
The 65-year-old was originally due to be released last year, but a case involving an American who swam across Inya Lake to her home, claiming he was on a mission to save her, prompted the latest 18-month detention.
'Significant impact'
The BBC is banned from reporting in Burma but correspondent Alastair Leithead is monitoring developments from the capital of neighbouring Thailand, Bangkok.
All day rumours have circulated that Aung Sang Suu Kyi could soon be free, and all day the crowds outside the offices of the NLD have grown.
The building is constantly watched by government intelligence agents, yet still they came, defiantly wearing white T-shirts emblazoned with the face of their icon.
News spread that the papers for Aung Sang Suu Kyi's release had been signed, though no one could actually confirm that, the anticipation grew.
The crowd moved off along the road towards the lakeside house that has been the pro-democracy leader's prison for so long.
Then the word came that the release would not after all be today, but perhaps tomorrow, and still no official statement from the military government.
Aung Sang Suu Kyi and her loyal supporters must it seems wait a little longer.
He says a number of sources inside Burma have told the BBC that documents authorising Ms Suu Kyi's release have been signed.
Officials have reportedly visited her home in University Avenue in Rangoon, Burma's biggest city, to deliver them.
About 2,000 of her supporters gathered at NLD headquarters in anticipation of her release. Some wore T-shirts saying: "We stand with you."
"Young and old, NLD members and non-members are gathering here with excitement to welcome her. At one point, we got the news that she was released and we all shouted with joy," Yazar, an NLD youth leader, told the BBC's Burmese service.
But by early evening a party leader told people to go home because it seemed unlikely she would be freed on Friday.
A man waiting outside the gate to Ms Suu Kyi's home said little had changed.
"People are waiting in groups here and there, maybe more than 100 in total - many of them are journalists," he told the BBC. "Security is normal as usual. No increase. The gate is closed as before, that's it."
Witnesses said there had been no increased security outside Ms Suu Kyi's home in Rangoon
Ms Suu Kyi's lawyer said: "There is no law to hold her for another day. Her detention period expires on Saturday and she will be released."
"They should release her for the country," Nyan Win added.
Earlier this week, he told the BBC that she would "not accept a limited release".
"[It] must be unconditional. As we all know, she never accepted limited freedom in the past."
Nyan Win said she would meet with the NLD's central committee, members of the media and the public once she was freed.
The British ambassador to Burma, Andrew Heyn, has told the BBC that the UK and EU are pressing hard for Ms Suu Kyi's unconditional release, and that her freedom would have a "significant impact".
The increasing speculation that the ruling generals may sanction Aung San Suu Kyi's release follows the country's first elections in 20 years on Sunday.
On Thursday, state media announced that partial results showed that the biggest military-backed party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), had secured a majority in both houses of parliament.
The USDP had won 190 of the 219 seats so far declared in the 330-seat lower House of Representatives, and 95 of 107 seats in the 168-seat upper House of Nationalities, the reports said.
Those elected included the leader of the USDP, Prime Minister Thein Sein, who retired from the military as a general in April to stand.
The junta has said the election marks the transition from military rule to a civilian democracy, but the opposition, many Western governments and human rights groups have said the election was neither free nor fair.
The NLD - which won the last election in 1990 but was never allowed to take power - was ordered to dissolve after refusing to take part.
A quarter of seats in the two new chambers of parliament will be reserved for the military. Any constitutional change will require a majority of more than 75% - meaning that the military will retain a casting vote.
Are you in the region? Or do you have any relatives in Burma? What is your reaction to the possible release? You can send us your comments using the form below:
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MediaBistro News Feed by Biodun Iginla, BBC News and MediaBistro Topic: media, mediabistro, bbc news
Morning Media Newsfeed
Friday, November 12, 2010
Are you coming to eBook Summit on December 15? Speakers include Ken Auletta (The New Yorker), Douglas Rushkoff (author), Debbie Stier (HarperCollins), and David Gaspin (Condé Nast).
How To Pitch: Latina You don't have to be Latina to pitch this pub, but your lifestyle pitches need to hit the right cultural notes.
Intro to Blogging - November 15 in New York Build a brand, learn from your audience, and create a connection with readers. learn more
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Newsweek And Daily Beast To Merge (NY Observer) Newsweek and The Daily Beast will announce this morning that the two publications will come together in a 50-50 merger of the two companies. The editorial staffs will combine under the editorship of Tina Brown, who will again run a high-profile glossy. The deal, reached yesterday, establishes a daily role forNewsweek owner Sidney Harman and strong editorial independence for Brown. The Daily Beast:Brown notes that the new merger will produce "The Newsweek Daily Beast Co.," owned equally by Barry Diller's IAC and Sidney Harman. Brown will now be editor-in-chief at both The Daily Beast and Newsweek, bringing with her as CEO her Daily Beast business partner, Stephen Colvin.
Disney's Earnings Released Early, Triggering Selloff (TheWrap) It appears that someone in The Walt Disney Co.'s corporate-communications department had an itchy trigger figure on the mouse, and it cost the company millions of dollars. A draft of Disney's earnings reporting a 6.7 percent decline in fourth-quarter profit -- a weaker result than analysts had expected -- was released 17 minutes earlier than it should've been sent. Other reports said the release was leaked as much as 30 minutes early, giving investors a chance to react to the results ahead of the closing bell. Yahoo! / The Upshot:Disney said Thursday that it is investigating the early release of its fourth-quarter earnings. The incident follows the guilty plea two months ago of a Disney employee who was trying to sell the early release of quarterly results.
Yahoo! Calls Rumor Of 20 Percent Layoff 'Misleading And Inaccurate' (TechCrunch) According to two independent sources, Yahoo! is preparing to lay off 20 percent of total staff, and managers have been asked to begin to make the tough decisions on who stays and who goes. In a statement on the issue, Yahoo! insists that it "is always evaluating expenses to align with the company's financial goals. However, a 20 percent reduction in Yahoo!'s work force across the board is misleading and inaccurate."
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The Sidney Hillman Foundation is now accepting nominations and submissions for the 2011 Hillman Prizes, honoring investigative journalism that fosters social and economic justice.
Categories include: books (non-fiction), reporting in newspaper, magazine, and online (including blogs), film and broadcast journalism (includes television and radio), and photojournalism. Click here http://www.hillmanfoundation.org/nominations-0 for more information and to make a nomination.
New Rules For Media Ethics (Gawker) After the spectacle of one of TV's most partisan shouting heads being suspended for making political donations, it's clear that journalism's ethical guidelines must be updated: 1) disclose, 2) vote, 3) realize the category "analyst" exists only in the mind of journalists themselves, 4) hire whomever you want, just don't let their investments color their coverage, 5) you can be friends with someone, or you can cover them, but not both, and 6) know that "opinion" is not a dirty word.
Media Matters Pays Small Fortune To Lunch With Rupert Murdoch (Mediaweek) A good cause makes for strange bedfellows -- or at least lunch dates. Media Matters, a liberal media watchdog that bashes Fox News Channel on a daily basis, will soon be lunching with News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch. In an online charity auction benefiting the Global Poverty Project, Media Matters bid $86,000 to win the honor of breaking bread with Murdoch. The lunch will take place at a mutually convenient time in New York City.
Can Adding Staff Curators Help Digg Recover? (GigaOM) Digg has had a rough time since it launched a redesign of the site several months ago, and the new CEO spent his first few weeks apologizing and rolling back many of those changes, then laid off almost 40 percent of the staff as part of a wave of cost-cutting. Now the site has added staff-curated links in what seems to be an attempt to recover some of its old magic -- or an admission that things just aren't working, despite all of the recent changes.
Amid Regional Expansion, McGraw-Hill Construction Undergoes Restructuring (Folio:) On the heels of an announcement late last month that McGraw-Hill Construction was expanding its Engineering News-Record Network into seven new regional markets, the company rolled out a restructuring this week that resulted in an undisclosed number of layoffs throughout the organization. An anonymous source says as many as 2,000 jobs were affected by the restructuring. The company spokesperson, however, says that number is "completely inaccurate."
Mediabistro Launches Blog About Twitter (Poynter / Romenesko) Mediabistro has launched AllTwitter, a new blog covering news, providing tips, and supporting opinions about social-media platform Twitter. "AllTwitter is a natural extension of the Mediabistro blog network and our strong focus on social media with the AllFacebook and SocialTimes blogs," said Alan M. Meckler, chairman and CEO of WebMediaBrands. "AllTwitter is devoted exclusively to the rapidly expanding marketing and business opportunities created by Twitter."
iPad Users More Likely To Cut Pay TV (B&C) A new survey from The Diffusion Group finds that people who own iPads or are planning to purchase one in the new few months are significantly more likely than average adult broadband users to either downgrade or cancel their pay TV services. More than one-third (33.9 percent) of iPad owners were to varying degrees likely to cancel their pay TV service in the next six months, and about 12.9 percent were "highly likely" to cut the cord.
student news
Mediabistro graduate Colleen Mescall found a new career and a passion for blogging after she took our intro to magazine writing class. Congratulations, Colleen! read her story
State Tells Man He May Be Jailed For Releasing Data (Boston.com) Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick's administration told a local Web site operator he could face jail time for publishing information that the state provided under an open-records request. It is unclear whether officials would or could follow through with the threat to Michael Morisy, cofounder of MuckRock. The data show how much money in food stamps has been spent at businesses around the state over the past five years under the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Hanley Wood President Out (Folio:) A little over one year after being elevated to president, Peter Goldstone has been let go at b2b publisher Hanley Wood. "Consistent with our business strategy of streamlining our operations into one integrated media organization, our board of directors has determined that it is appropriate to restructure our senior management team by eliminating the position of president," Hanley Wood CEO Frank Anton said. "As a result, Peter Goldstone is leaving the company, effective immediately."
Rachel Maddow Interviews Jon Stewart (Mediaite) Right after Bill O'Reilly got a former president on his program, Rachel Maddow had a big guest of her own -- Jon Stewart. Stewart explained his thoughts on the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear, as well as why he feels that the cable news networks are missing the point. Stewart's major point was that he thinks the correct fight to pay attention to in society is "corruption vs. not corruption," rather than right vs. left, and that cable news should do more than "amplify that one aspect of the battle."
mediabistro.com event
SEMANTIC WEB SUMMIT November 16-17, 2010 | Boston, MA Brought to you by SemanticWeb.com Explore how companies are using semantic web technologies today, and should be using them tomorrow, for significant bottom line impact in marketing, publishing, corporate information management, customer service, and personal productivity. Speakers include Stephen Wolfram (Wolfram Research), Mike Dunn (Hearst Interactive Media), Dennis Wisnosky (Department of Defense), Rachel Lovinger (Razorfish), Jay Myers (Best Buy), and more. Register today!
Sorkin Talks DealBook's Changes And Business Journalism (Talking Biz News) "One of the things that we're trying to do is very much actually modeled after what you've seen the folks at Politico do or the folks at TechCrunch do," explains the newly revamped DealBook's Andrew Ross Sorkin. "We really want to own the story around a particular world and do it in a way that speaks to that community in that language, but also in a way that is accessible enough for readers who aren't living in this world today."
James Frey's Next Act (WSJ) For James Frey, success and controversy are a package deal. For Frey's new venture, Full Fathom Five, the author oversees lesser-known writers as they develop fictional ideas into books he then markets to publishers and studios. Full Fathom Five is already wrapped in real-life drama. One writer hired attorneys to represent him when dealings with Frey grew contentious (the dispute was settled last month), and Frey says a disgruntled writer is working on a magazine story about him.
Pink-Slipping The Pulitzer: Editorial Cartoonists Are Cut In Election Day's Wake (WaPo) Within days of polls closing this year, one Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist has been pink-slipped and a two-time Pulitzer finalist has been demoted to part-time status. Matt Davies, cartoonist for The Journal News in the Lower Hudson Valley, says the Gannett-owned paper has laid him off. Another gifted Gannett cartoonist, Marshall Ramsey of the Clarion-Ledger in Jackson, Miss., confirmed just days after the election that his paper is reducing his duties amid more than one-dozen staff cuts.
student news
Mediabistro graduate Kara Richardson Whitely published her book, Fat Woman on the Mountain: How I Lost Half Myself and Gained Happiness, after taking personal essay and nonfiction book proposal courses. Congratulations, Kara! read her story
• RT @berman14: Someone has made a terrible mistake. I am anchoring @ABCWorldNews on Sunday. One night only, as they say in "Dreamgirls." —@TVNewser • WATCH: Jimmy Fallon Interviews Ev Williams and Biz Stone: http://ow.ly/38pwP —@AllTwtr • 12 Timeless Rules for Making a Good Publication, per @TheAtlantic / @AlexisMadrigal http://mbist.ro/dkYzGA — @mediabistro • The L Magazine loves you and wants you to meet Jay-Z between the covers. BOOK PUN! http://t.co/FtiZKVm — @FishbowlNY • Amazing. RT @PublishersLunch: #plnws Amazon Gets Patent for Turning Bad Gifts Into What You Want http://bit.ly/bPeYvB — @GalleyCat
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by Tamara Kachelmeier and Biodun Iginla, BBC News and The Economist
Economic indicators from the web
Internet firms are becoming a valuable source of economic insights
Nov 11th 2010 | SAN FRANCISCO | From The Economist print edition
EACH November for the past three years PayPal, an online-payments service owned by eBay, has published data showing the volume of payments it handles on what retailers call “Black Friday”, or the first day after the Thanksgiving holiday. The idea is to assess the strength of consumer demand on the day that marks the start of the holiday shopping season. On Black Friday last year the total of payments made on PayPal’s system was 20% higher than on the same day in 2008, suggesting that consumer confidence in America was looking more robust. Retailers are hoping for a repeat performance this month.
PayPal is one of a growing band of online companies dipping into the data they gather in an effort to divine trends in the American economy. Last month Hal Varian, Google’s chief economist, revealed that the search-engine giant had developed a “Google Price Index”, based on web-shopping data it holds—though it has yet to decide whether to publish it. While Google flirts with inflation, Intuit monitors employment. The firm, which offers online payroll, tax and other services to small businesses, produces a monthly small-business employment index based on aggregated data from 59,000 of its customers.
Web firms see such indicators as something of a sideline. Tayloe Stansbury, Intuit’s chief technology officer, says that most of the firm’s data mining is geared to helping its customers. But some economic policymakers are paying attention to web firms’ statistics, for a couple of reasons.
The first is the speed with which the data are generated and crunched. Ceridian, which manages payments made by businesses via the web or with stored-value cards, tracks aggregate purchases of diesel fuel by truck drivers in real time. Together with the UCLA Anderson School of Management, it has used these data to create an index to gauge what is happening to shipments of goods by road in America. The latest instalment, published this week, showed the index had fallen by 0.6% in October compared with the previous month. Given that October is usually a busy time for the trucking industry the index’s creators say the decline “sounds an alarm” for growth in the fourth quarter.
Because web businesses gather data rapidly, their indicators can sometimes identify trends before official statistics. Take the case of Monster Worldwide, an online job service that publishes an index tracking jobs posted on its own and other sites. This fell sharply in 2007 before official numbers showed employment in America weakening (see chart). Google has said its search data may also provide useful early-warning signals: it is exploring whether searches for terms such as “unemployment insurance” are a good way to predict future increases in joblessness.
A second reason that web firms’ indicators are gaining popularity is the detailed data that underpin them. John Krainer, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, says he has drawn on statistics from Zillow, an online property site, in his research because of their “granularity”. The Zillow Home Value Index draws on the site’s individual valuations of 72m houses across America.
Some economists caution that web firms’ data have big handicaps. Many of the indices have only a short history, which means they are of little value to policymakers interested in long-term trends. And they often measure only online transactions, which limits their appeal. Both caveats carry some weight. But as more economic activity moves online, the notion of using bits and bytes to measure booms and busts will surely become more attractive.
BREAKING NEWS ALERT: G-20 refuses to back US push on China's currency Topic: g20, obama, bbc news
JEAN H. LEE for The BBC's BIODUN IGINLA
| 31 minutes ago
U.S. President Barack Obama, second left, smiles with other leaders, Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron, third left, Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev, second right, and Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper, right, at the G-20 working dinner at the National Museum of Korea in Seoul South Korea, Thursday, Nov. 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Yonhap News Agency)View more photos
SEOUL, South Korea — Leaders of 20 major economies on Friday refused to back a U.S. push to make China boost its currency's value, keeping alive a dispute that raises fears of a global trade war amid criticism that cheap Chinese exports are costing American jobs.
A joint statement issued by the leaders including President Barack Obama and China's Hu Jintao tried to recreate the unity that was evident when the Group of 20 rich and developing nations held its first summit two years ago during the global financial meltdown.
But deep divisions, especially over the U.S.-China currency dispute, left G-20 officials negotiating all night to draft a watered-down statement for the leaders to endorse.
"Instead of hitting home runs sometimes we're gonna hit singles. But they're really important singles," Obama told a news conference after the summit.
Other leaders also tried to portray the summit as a success, pointing to their pledges to fight protectionism and develop guidelines next year that will measure the imbalances between trade surplus and trade deficit countries.
The G-20's failure to adopt the U.S. stand has underlined Washington's reduced influence on the international stage, especially on economic matters. In another setback, Obama also failed to conclude a free trade agreement this week with South Korea.
The biggest disappointment for the United States was the pledge by the leaders to refrain from "competitive devaluation" of currencies. Such a statement is of little consequence since countries usually only devalue their currencies -- making it less worth against the dollar -- in extreme situations like a severe financial crisis.
The statement decided against using a slightly different wording favored by the U.S. -- "competitive undervaluation," which would have shown the G-20 taking a stronger stance on China's currency policy.
The crux of the dispute is Washington's allegations that Beijing is artificially keeping its currency, the yuan, weak to gain a trade advantage.
U.S. business lobbies say that a cheaper yuan costs American jobs because production moves to China to take advantage of low labor costs and undervalued currency.
A stronger yuan would shrink the U.S. trade deficit with China, which is on track this year to match its 2008 record of $268 billion, and encourage Chinese companies to sell more to their own consumers rather than rely so much on the U.S. and others to buy low-priced Chinese goods.
But the U.S. position has been undermined by its own central bank's decision to print $600 billion to boost a sluggish economy, which is weakening the dollar.
Also, developing countries like Thailand and Indonesia fear that much of the "hot" money will flood their markets, where returns are higher. Such emerging markets could be left vulnerable to a crash if investors later decide to pull out and move their money elsewhere.
Obama said China's currency policy is an "irritant" not just for the United States but for many of its other trading partners. The G-20 countries -- ranging from industrialized nations such as U.S. and Germany to developing ones like China, Brazil and India -- account for 85 percent of the world's economic activity.
"China spends enormous amounts of money intervening in the market to keep it undervalued so what we have said is it is important for China in a gradual fashion to transition to a market based system," Obama said.
The dispute is threatening to resurrect destructive protectionist policies like those that worsened the Great Depression in the 1930s. The biggest fear is that trade barriers will send the global economy back into recession.
The possibility of a currency war "absolutely" remains, said Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega.
Friday's statement is also unlikely to resolve the most vexing problem facing the G-20 members: how to fix a global economy that's long been marked by huge U.S. trade deficits with exporters like China, Germany and Japan.
Americans consume far more in foreign goods and services from these countries than they sell abroad.
The G-20 leaders said they will try to reduce the gaps between nations running large trade surpluses and those running deficits.
The "persistently large imbalances" in current accounts -- a broad measure of a nation's trade and investment with the rest of the world -- would be measured by what they called "indicative guidelines" to be determined later.
The leaders called for the guidelines to be developed by the G-20 , along with help from the International Monetary Fund and other global organizations, and for finance ministers and central bank governors to meet in the first half of next year to discuss progress.
Analysts were not convinced.
"Leaders are putting the best face on matters by suggesting that it is the process that matters rather than results," said Stephen Lewis, chief economist for London-based Monument Securities.
"The only concrete agreement seems to be that they should go on measuring the size of the problem rather than doing something about it."
On the second day of talks at the G20 summit in South Korea on Friday, leaders of the world’s major economies struggled to resolve a currency dispute between the US and China amid mounting tensions.
Iraq's newly re-elected president, Jalal Talabani, has asked incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki (pictured) to form a new government during a tense session of parliament, raising the prospect of an end to eight months of political deadlock.
Barely two weeks after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to a disputed Pacific island sparked a diplomatic row with Japan, Medvedev is set to meet with Japanese PM Naoto Kan, on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
An attack on a police compound used to hold suspected terrorists in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, has left at least 18 people dead and scores more injured, officials say.
Dino De Laurentiis, the producer of numerous Italian neo-realist masterpieces and of Hollywood hits including "Serpico", has died in Los Angeles aged 91, according to Italian media reports.
On the second day of talks at the G20 summit in South Korea on Friday, leaders of the world’s major economies struggled to resolve a currency dispute between the US and China amid mounting tensions.
US carmaker General Motors announced a two-billion-dollar profit for the third quarter on Wednesday, in further evidence of the company's return to health ahead of a planned initial public offering.
Europe's competition watchdog has fined 11 airlines, including Air France-KLM and British Airways, a total of nearly 800 million euros for fixing prices on surcharges for fuel and security.
Australian airline Qantas said Monday that it would keep its Airbus A380 fleet grounded for at least another 72 hours after investigators found oil leaks in some engines.
France said Friday that it would receive its first A400M military transport plane in 2013 after European governments struck a new deal to finance the aircraft, which has been plagued by cost overruns and manufacturing delays.
Frenchman Franck Cammas has won the ninth edition of the Route de Rhum, finishing the transatlantic solo sprint from Saint Malo in France to Guadeloupe's Pointe-à-Pitre in his giant trimaran Groupama 3 in nine days, three hours and 14 minutes.
The UCI international cycling authority said Monday it was asking the Spanish cycling federation to open disciplinary procedures against Tour de France champion Alberto Contador after it was revealed he had failed a drug test taken in July.
Red Bull drivers Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber gave their team the constructor's title Sunday with a brilliant one-two at the Brazilian Grand Prix, but it will take a solo achievement for either of the two to win the driver's title next week.
Bottom-placed Arles-Avignon beat Caen 3-2 on Saturday to pick up their first win of the season. Stade Rennes remain second after a draw against Lyon, one point behind Ligue 1 leaders Brest, who lost to Lille.
Italy's Fed Cup squad have picked up their second title in a row, and their third in five years, with a 3-1 win over a US team deprived of the Williams sisters.
Dino De Laurentiis, the producer of numerous Italian neo-realist masterpieces and of Hollywood hits including "Serpico", has died in Los Angeles aged 91, according to Italian media reports.
The best-selling author Michel Houellebecq, known for his blunt depictions of alienation and male angst, has won France's most prestigious literary prize, the Prix Goncourt, for his new novel, a satire of the Paris art world.
Thousands of articles seized from the homes of jailed financier Bernard Madoff go on auction in New York on Saturday. Proceeds from the 489 lots will go to compensate victims of Madoff’s infamous financial schemes.
After 50 years making iconic and esoteric films alike, Jean-Luc Godard will be given his first Academy Award on Saturday. The decision by the director of "Breathless" to skip the ceremony has revived an old debate about his disdain for Hollywood.
Chinese artist Ai Weiwei said Monday he was no longer under house arrest, after police confined him to his home for three days to stop him from attending an event at his Shanghai studio set for demolition.
Ai, 53, is one of China's most famous and controversial artists, who currently has an exhibition at London's Tate Modern. He also is an outspoken critic of the country's Communist rulers.
"My house arrest was supposed to last until midnight last night. In fact, the police left at about 11:00 pm," Ai told AFP.
In today’s French press review, we focus on the five year anniversary of the riots that took place in the Parisian suburb of Clichy. The death of two boys chased by the police near a power transformer sparked extreme violence in the region. Also in the papers: medical assistance on the internet and the worst US campaign adverts, seven days before the mid-terms.
Finland has just become the first country in the world to make a law aiming to eradicate smoking entirely. The government has introduced a bill which aims to make Finland smoke-free by 2040. On October 1st, the first measures of the so-called Tobacco Act were introduced, making it harder for people under 18 to smoke, and restricting smoking outdoors. And tougher measures are to come. But can Europe follow the lead?
While over 200 countries come together in Japan to work out a road map to stop the extinction of species, ENVIRONMENT looks at the bugs and pests that are gaining in strength and taking over towns. Insecticides have gotten less toxic over the years and some species are profiting, but scientists in France may soon be able to trap them using the laws of attraction.
An accident at an Alumina factory in Hungary smothers three villages with a toxic sludge, leaving 9 dead and scores of others burned and badly injured. HEALTH meets those burned by the alkaline mud which ate deep into their skin. At Budapest’s hospitals doctors still rely on results from Greenpeace to see what metals or toxic materials are present in the mud.
A network of suspected Armenian gangsters used means such as setting up fake medical clinics to try and cheat the government's medical insurance programme out of $163 million, the largest fraud by a criminal enterprise in the programme’s history.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy officially signed a controversial pension reform bill, raising the retirement age from 60 to 62, into law on Wednesday. The reform sparked weeks of street demonstrations and nationwide strikes.
After eight months of speculation, a reshuffle of French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s cabinet is expected before the end of November. France24.com takes a look at the frontrunners and outsiders in the race to be named France’s next prime minister.
Three Frenchmen kidnapped off the coast of Nigeria on September 22 have been released, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Wednesday. The men were employees of France's offshore services firm Bourbon.
Thirty-four Iraqi Christians and a Muslim guard hurt in last week's al Qaeda attack on a Baghdad church arrived in Paris late Monday. French Immigration Minister Eric Besson said it was in France's "tradition of asylum" to offer them treatment.
The families of French victims of a 2002 bombing in Pakistan are to take the president of France's National Assembly to court for refusing to hand over evidence given to a parliamentary commission
Four gunmen and at least seven Russian police were reportedly killed in a shootout Thursday, in the turbulent North Caucasus region of Dagestan, where the Russian military is struggling to contain an Islamist insurgency.
A day after a protest by students and lecturers in the UK against a plan to triple tuition fees turned violent, British Prime Minister said the violence was "completely unacceptable" and vowed that such actions would not go "unpunished".
University students forced their way into the headquarters of British Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party on Wednesday to protest against plans to triple tuition fees, overwhelming security guards and wrecking the reception area.
Turkey's stalling bid to join the European Union suffered another setback on Tuesday as the 27-nation bloc published an annual report pointing out areas in which Ankara should improve, including human rights and its relationship with Cyprus.
Europe's competition watchdog has fined 11 airlines, including Air France-KLM and British Airways, a total of nearly 800 million euros for fixing prices on surcharges for fuel and security.
Iraq's newly re-elected president, Jalal Talabani, has asked incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki (pictured) to form a new government during a tense session of parliament, raising the prospect of an end to eight months of political deadlock.
A series of bombings and mortar attacks targeting Christians killed at least three people and wounded dozens more in Baghdad on Wednesday. The attacks come 10 days after a brazen assault on a Catholic church killed 52.
Jordan has elected a parliament dominated by government loyalists after a boycott by opposition Islamists, according to official results released Wednesday. Islamist parties have disputed turnout figures, which the government estimates at 53 percent.
The US said on Monday it was "deeply disappointed" by Israel's plan to build 1,300 new homes in occupied East Jerusalem, as Palestinian leaders accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of seeking to sabotage stalled peace talks.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has claimed responsibility for a parcel bomb plot that was uncovered last week, as well as the crash in September of a UPS plane in Dubai.
With about seven percent of Sunday's run-off ballots counted, Guinea's former premier Cellou Dallein Diallo (left) held a slight edge over challenger Alpha Conde, partial electoral commission results indicated late on Tuesday.
At least 11 of the 35 passengers aboard a Sudanese plane that crashed while landing Thursday in the country's western Darfur region have survived, according to an official with the UN and African Union peacekeeping mission in the area.
Three Frenchmen kidnapped off the coast of Nigeria on September 22 have been released, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Wednesday. The men were employees of France's offshore services firm Bourbon.
Opposition leader Henri Konan Bedie (right) has joined four rivals in calling on supporters to choose Alassana Ouattara (left) over current president Laurent Gbagbo when they vote in the last leg of the presidential race in two weeks.
Violent clashes broke out yet again on Monday in Laayoun, the largest city of Western Sahara, a desert region disputed between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front rebel group, a Sahrawi nationalist movement.
Three more people have died from cholera in Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, as the death toll from the epidemic hits 724. It is feared the disease could spread to tent camps that have sheltered over a million people since the Jan. 12 earthquake.
Cuban authorities have unveiled a new five-year plan designed to slash social spending, including ending the "equal pay" regime, and attract more private capital, in a bid to revive the country's stalled economy.
Cases of cholera were identified in the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince on Tuesday as the death toll from the epidemic reached nearly 600. The disease could spread to tent camps that have housed over a million people since the Jan. 12 earthquake.
Former President George W. Bush reclaims the spotlight Tuesday with the release of a new memoir, "Decision Points", defending his "war on terror" and the Iraq invasion. The unpopular ex-president has kept a low profile since leaving the White House.
Hurricane Tomas killed at least 21 people as it battered Haiti over the weekend, inflicting further suffering on the Caribbean nation which is struggling to fight a cholera epidemic and rebuild after January's devastating earthquake.
Barely two weeks after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to a disputed Pacific island sparked a diplomatic row with Japan, Medvedev is set to meet with Japanese PM Naoto Kan, on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
An attack on a police compound used to hold suspected terrorists in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, has left at least 18 people dead and scores more injured, officials say.
At a joint press conference with South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak in Seoul Thursday, US President Barack Obama called on North Korea to show “seriousness of purpose” before the resumption of six-nation nuclear talks.
Territorial disputes vary in intensity, from the militarised to the dormant and those under legal review. Many go unheard of for years before they are thrust back into the limelight. Here is a look at the border melees that get the least attention.
Pakistan has condemned a US statement of support for India to be given a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, saying it has "serious concern" over India's commitment to observing international law and the principles of the UN charter.
Leaders of the G20 group of major economies have agreed to avoid "competitive devaluation" of currencies after a second day of difficult talks in the South Korean capital, Seoul.
Leaders agreed to come up with "indicative guidelines" to tackle trade imbalances affecting world growth.
Tensions had been high between some delegations over how to correct distortions in currency and trade.
But the agreement fell short of a US push to limit trade deficits.
Some fear the conflict, chiefly between China and the US, may threaten global growth.
US President Barack Obama said there should be no controversy about fixing imbalances "that helped to contribute to the crisis that we just went through".
"Exchange rates must reflect economic realities," he said.
"Emerging economies need to allow for currencies that are market-driven. This is something that I raised with President Hu of China and we will closely watch the appreciation of China's currency."
Andrew WalkerEconomics correspondent, BBC World Service
Some of what the G20 agreed had already been done by their finance ministers - the commitment to refrain from competitive devaluations, for example. The summit did not manage to harden that up, as had been suggested, with a promise to avoid competitive undervaluation. That would have put more pressure on.
On the related issue of global imbalances, which is partly about international trade, they agreed to develop indicators to show when imbalances need to be reduced. That work is due next year.
It is progress but slow, rather like China's commitment to move to a market-based exchange rate. They say they will do it, but in their own time, in other words not tomorrow. So there was no breakthrough in these key areas, but the very public endorsement of political leaders perhaps gives a little more weight to such commitments as they have made.
Washington says that China's currency, the yuan, is artificially weak and gives Chinese exporters an unfair advantage as well as leading to Beijing amassing huge foreign reserves.
However, Chinese officials argue that Beijing has an "unswerving" commitment to reform its currency regime, but that global economic stability is needed to achieve it.
UK Prime Minister David Cameron said progress was being made on the issue of imbalances.
"Slowly, slowly China is moving into a position of actually increasing domestic consumption, rebalancing its economy," he said.
However, the agreement to develop new guidelines to prevent so-called "currency wars" fell well short of the 4% limit on national trade deficits and surpluses proposed by the US, which had been blocked by China and Germany - the world's two largest exporters.
"This was never going to be solved overnight," Mr Cameron added.
And South Korea President Lee Myung-Bak admitted that "on the foreign exchange rate issue, principles were agreed at the finance ministers' meeting, but there was no word on when and up to how much we will implement them".
'Fractious' negotiations
The G20 leaders also gave their backing to reforms designed to give emerging economies such as China a bigger say in the International Monetary Fund.
UK Prime Minister David Cameron says China rebalancing its economy is "good news"
In their communique, leaders said they were delivering "a modernised IMF that better reflects the changes in the world economy through greater representation of dynamic emerging markets and developing countries".
UK sources say that officials from the UK, France and Russia had to be called in the early hours of this morning after "fractious" negotiations between China and the US broke down in "acrimony".
But at the end of the summit, the European Union said in a statement that it was "satisfied" with the outcome.
The G20 also committed itself to completing soon the long-running Doha Development Round of global trade talks, saying that 2011 presented a "critical window of opportunity, albeit narrow" to conclude the discussions.
And it signed the Seoul Development Consensus for Shared Growth, committing it to work in partnership with other developing countries on trade, development and investment.
The G20 group comprises the world's 19 leading national economies, plus the European Union. It was formed in 1999, and held its first meeting that year.
Until 2008 the G20 was overshadowed by the smaller G8 grouping of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US, Canada and Russia.
However, this has changed since the global financial crisis of 2008, and the G20 has effectively now replaced the G8 as the main global economic forum.
The major growth in the economies of G20 members China, India and Brazil has also contributed to the rising importance of the grouping.
The G20 currently meets twice a year, but this is set to reduce to one meeting from 2011.
Meanwhile, the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain issued a joint declaration to try to calm bond market jitters over a possible future EU bail-out fund.
As Irish bond yields reached a fresh high, leaders discussed the Irish Republic's debt crisis amid concerns that the European Union will have to step in.
"Any new [bail-out] mechanism would only come into effect after mid-2013 with no impact whatsoever on the current arrangements," finance ministers from the five countries said in the declaration.
The statement seemed to have an impact on the bond market, with Irish bond yields dropping to 8.2%, down from the record high of 8.95% reached on Thursday.
But world stock markets fell in Friday trading as investors worried about Irish government debt, as well as possible measures in China to tackle inflation.
U.S. President Barack Obama, second left, smiles with other leaders, Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron, third left, Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev, second right, and Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper, right, at the G-20 working dinner at the National Museum of Korea in Seoul South Korea, Thursday, Nov. 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Yonhap News Agency)View more photos
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