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Biodun@bbcnews.com
Monday, 13 December 2010
BREAKING NEWS ALERT: Tax-Cut Bill Passes 60-Vote Level in Senate, Enough to Advance
Topic: us taxes, bbc news, the economis
by Melissa Gruz and Biodun Iginla, BBC News

The Senate on Monday advanced the tax-cut package agreed to
between President Obama and Congressional Republicans,
virtually assuring that the Senate will approve the bill on
Tuesday
 and send it to the House where Democrats are
threatening to make changes to a provision granting a
generous tax exemption to wealthy estates.

The vote in the Senate was not finished, but shortly after 4
p.m. the tally showed more than 60 senators agreeing to end
debate, cut off any filibuster and move to a vote on passage.

The majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, had agreed to keep
the vote open far longer than usual to allow lawmakers
returning to Washington from the West Coast to make it back
to the Capitol.

The vote was 61 to 7, with six Democrats and Senator Bernard
Sanders
, the Vermont independent, in opposition.

Posted by biginla at 9:46 PM GMT
Friday, 10 December 2010
BREAKING NEWS ALERT: Obama Weighs Overhaul of Tax Code to Lower Rates and Close Loopholes
Topic: us taxes, bbc news, the economis

 

by Biodun Iginla, BBC News

President Obama is considering whether to push early next
year for an overhaul of the income tax code to lower rates
and raise revenues in what would be his first major effort to
begin addressing the long-term growth of the national debt.

While administration officials cautioned on Thursday that no
decisions have been made and that any debate in Congress
could take years, Mr. Obama has directed his economic team
and Treasury Department analysts to review options for
closing loopholes and simplifying income taxes for
corporations and individuals, though the study of the
corporate tax system is farther along, officials said.


Posted by biginla at 2:20 AM GMT
Updated: Friday, 10 December 2010 2:23 AM GMT
Friday, 3 December 2010
Vote for agony
Topic: us taxes, bbc news, the economis

Economics focus

by Judith Stein and Biodun Iginla, BBC News and The Economist

Cutting public spending and raising taxes may not be as politically suicidal as it seems

Dec 2nd 2010 | From The Economist print edition

WINNING elections these days can seem like committing political suicide. Many in Britain—including, reportedly, the governor of the Bank of England—reckoned that the victors of the general election in May of this year would be out of power for a generation. All of the main parties, terrified of scaring the electorate, campaigned on the basis that they would tighten the budget only modestly, in the full knowledge that far nastier medicine would be required. Today, across the periphery of the euro zone, governments are struggling to placate financial markets while maintaining the confidence of their electorates.

The idea that imposing austerity is political hara-kiri is widely held. But a new paper* by Alberto Alesina of Harvard University, Dorian Carloni of the University of California at Berkeley and Giampaolo Lecce of New York University finds little historical support for it. “The empirical evidence on this point”, the economists write, “is much less clear cut than the conviction with which this conventional wisdom is held.”

The authors study 19 rich countries over the 33 years between 1975 and 2008, identifying instances in which governments cut the primary deficit (ie, before debt service), adjusted for the stage of the economic cycle, by at least 1.5% of GDP. This is the standard way in which economists measure periods of fiscal consolidation, though the IMF has argued recently that an alternative approach, which looks at countries’ stated policies, may be better.

The authors begin by picking out the ten harshest episodes of fiscal consolidation in OECD countries in that period. Many of the countries in the eye of the storm today—including Britain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal—are on this list, having been forced to implement severe fiscal consolidations before.

The paper then looks at what happened to incumbent governments that faced elections either during the period of fiscal tightening or within two years of its having come to a close. There were 19 such elections, of which seven (or 37%) resulted in a change of government. Tightening governments seem to have a survival rate no worse than the average: incumbents were booted out of office in 40% of all the elections in rich countries between 1975 and 2008.

Narrowing things down even further, to the five most painful episodes of belt-tightening, produces a similar result. And when the authors broaden their analysis to include all large fiscal consolidations (not just the biggest five or ten), their results are once again pretty much the same. In all, there were 60 instances in the 19 rich economies they study where a country cut its budget deficit by at least 1.5% of GDP. Again, the odds of the government losing power were about 40%.

If it is not political madness to try to balance the books, what is the best way to do it? The economists’ data permit them to assess what best saves politicians’ skins. They classify their ten episodes of fiscal austerity into those that relied primarily on tax increases and those that relied heavily on cuts in expenditure. Ireland between 1986 and 1989, Canada (1993-97), Finland (1993-98), Belgium (1982-87) and Sweden (1994-2000) all chopped rather than taxed.

In only 20% of elections in the countries that slashed spending did the government lose power, compared with a 56% rate of being booted out of office for governments which chose to raise taxes. Voters evidently dislike tax increases much more than they abhor spending cuts.

Do the popular cut, or are cuts popular?

One worry about interpreting these results is, however, that politically secure governments may be precisely the ones implementing such tough policies. But the economists were at least able also to assess the records of coalition governments, which might be assumed, by and large, to be in a weaker initial position than single-party governments.

Coalitions don’t seem to be much weaker: they last 4.12 years on average, compared with 4.2 years for single-party governments, although they do lose elections slightly more often. But they show no tendency to shy away from being fiscally firm. In the data that Messrs Alesina, Carloni and Lecce use, coalitions tightened the national belt in 9.9% of the years they were in office—about the same as single-party governments, which did so in 10.1% of years.

The results from a different measure of political strength—whether or not a government had an absolute majority in the legislature—are similar. And neither kind of supposedly strong government was more likely to survive at the polls within two years of a bout of budget-slashing. If anything, coalition governments and those without a clear majority were slightly more likely to survive an election after a tough fiscal consolidation.

The results of the paper suggest that cash-strapped governments ought not to worry about losing office as much as received wisdom might have it. There might be riots on the streets and strikes, but the electorate may take a grown-up view of fiscal consolidation, particularly if it is concentrated on spending cuts rather than tax increases.

Yet that in turn raises another question: why are politicians still so nervous about balancing the books? The authors suggest that a failure to tackle budget problems is far likelier when governments are beholden to interest groups, such as industries that benefit from tax breaks, or homeowners, or those on pensions, rather than the voting public at large. Confronting them, rather than the entire electorate, may be the really difficult task for governments that want to make the numbers add up.


* “The Electoral Consequences of Large Fiscal Adjustments”, by Alberto Alesina, Dorian Carloni and Giampaolo Lecce. Unpublished draft, October 2010. Available here.

Readers' comments

The Economist welcomes your views.


Posted by biginla at 1:03 PM GMT
Sunday, 21 November 2010
Debt-cutting plans share this: Taxes will go up for everyone
Topic: us taxes, bbc news, the economis

by Judith Stein and Biodun Iginla, BBC News and The Economist | Sun, Nov 21, 3:12 AM

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Where to cut the federal budget?Where to cut the federal budget?View more photos

 

WASHINGTON -- Just in time to dash holiday cheer, recently unveiled debt-reduction plans underscore how huge are the fiscal challenges facing the U.S. They also make clear how tough the tradeoffs must be to tame federal budget deficits and the national debt.

Major overhauls of the entire U.S. tax code are at the heart of all these plans. They'd eliminate popular deductions and radically change taxation across the board.

None of this will happen unless Congress and President Barack Obama enact these proposals into law. However, the gravity of the nation's debt problem and the stature of these commissions add political urgency to grappling with these proposals.

The most influential panel is the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. Earlier this month, the panel's co-chairmen -- Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Alan Simpson -- released their preliminary report on how to bring down deficits and debt. It sent shock waves rumbling nationwide.

"We can't grow ourselves out of this problem. We can't tax our way out of it," Bowles told PBS' Charlie Rose Tuesday. "People who want to do just taxes, you'd have to raise the maximum marginal rates to 80 percent. You'd have to raise the corporate rate to 70 percent. You'd have to raise the capital gains rate to 50 percent if you're just going to do taxes.

"We can't cut our way out of it. People say, 'Oh, well, let's just cut the budget.' If you just rely on deficit reduction through cutting, and you want to exclude Social Security, Medicare and defense and of course interest, then you'd have to cut everything else by about 60 to 65 percent. You can't do that, either," Bowles said.

"What we've got to do is some combination. Alan and I have come out with a plan that's balanced that takes $4 trillion out of the deficit over the next 10 years. I think that's the kind of thing we have to do. And if we don't, the markets are going to force us to."

Their report drew cautious praise from moderates and conservatives, but many liberals insisted instead that reducing unemployment, not deficits, should be the government's most urgent priority.

Budget experts disagree.

"Some politicians and economists present a false choice: Reduce unemployment or stabilize the debt. Restoring America's future, however, requires that we do both -- and begin now," said a second similar report this week from the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank featuring former Washington leaders from both parties.

A third similar report was issued jointly this month by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which is devoted to reducing the national debt, and the Pew Charitable Trusts.

Driving all the plans is this cruel reality: The federal deficit is projected at $1.3 trillion this year, almost as much as last year -- a scale not seen since the end of World War II. Left untamed, experts insist, this monstrous debt threatens the nation's future prosperity and security. Simply paying interest on the nearly $14 trillion national debt will cost more than $1 trillion in 2020 -- 17 percent of all federal spending -- unless big changes are made.

The biggest change that all three plans emphasize: Overhauling the U.S. tax code. All three plans would restructure income tax brackets. Current tax brackets -- set to sunset this year -- are 10 percent, 15 percent, 25 percent, 28 percent, 33 percent and 35 percent. The corporate rate is 35 percent.

All three plans would broaden the tax base subject to the lower rates to ensure that sufficient revenue comes to the Treasury. They'd do that by eliminating or limiting popular tax deductions, such as those for interest paid on mortgages and for charitable donations.

Bowles-Simpson suggests three individual income-tax rates: 8 percent, 14 percent and 23 percent. It also would drop the corporate tax rate to 26 percent.

An alternative option would establish three rates at 15 percent, 25 percent and 35 percent.

The policy center proposes only two income-tax brackets, 15 percent and 27 percent. Its corporate rate would be 27 percent.

In the final accounting, almost everyone would pay higher federal taxes under Bowles-Simpson.

 

 

"In 2015, the lowest earners would face an average cut in their after-tax income of 3.4 percent, or about $400. Middle-income households (those earning an average of about $60,000) would see their after-tax incomes fall by 4 percent or about $1,900," according to analysis by Howard Gleckman, a researcher at the Tax Policy Center, a joint operation of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute, two leading Washington policy research centers.

The wealthiest 1 percent would see their after-tax income shaved by $77,000, Gleckman wrote, while the top one-tenth of 1 percent of earners would see after-tax income fall by 8 percent, or almost $500,000.

In short, everyone would share the burden of reducing the debt, some more than others.

"Some individuals and corporations will certainly pay more, being the heavy users of deductions, and that's what makes tax reform so hard," said Rudolph Penner, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office and now a senior fellow at the Urban Institute. "There are a large number of losers, and they always seem to howl louder than those who praise the tax reform."

 

Many of the proposals are certain to be controversial, none more than one featured by all three plans -- a sharp reduction in popular mortgage-interest deductions.

Mortgage holders now can deduct from their federal income taxes the amount of interest they pay on any outstanding mortgage debt of $1 million or less.

Under Bowles-Simpson, this deduction could be reduced by 20 percent, or by 15 percent under a second option.

Under a third option, some interest costs would be excluded from the deduction: interest paid on mortgages for vacation and/or second homes; interest paid on home equity loans; and interest on any mortgage valued above $500,000.

 

The Bipartisan Policy Center would eliminate the entire mortgage-interest deduction. It would replace it with a 15 percent tax credit for interest expenses on a mortgage for principal residences only. The tax credit would be capped at $25,000.

Taxpayers no longer would file a tax return to claim the credit; it would be applied by mortgage lenders, who'd lower a borrower's annual mortgage interest payments by 15 percent.

The Peterson-Pew report would replace the mortgage-interest deduction with a 20 percent tax credit. It estimates this would reduce the deficit by $190 billion by 2018.

 

Real estate interests don't like these proposals.

Walter Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, said his group "is opposed to any change in the mortgage interest deduction, and will make an assessment when definitive proposals are released."

 

"The mortgage interest deduction is one of the pillars of our national housing policy, and limiting its use will have negative repercussions for consumers and home values up and down the housing chain," Michael Berman, the chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in a statement.

 

Other tax proposals also promise to be unpopular, at least when viewed in isolation rather than as components of national debt-reduction.

Among them: Bowles-Simpson would impose a 15-cents-a-gallon federal gas tax to fund road and bridge projects.

 

For the employed, both Bowles-Simpson and the policy center would end the practice of not taxing the value of employer-provided health insurance.

In addition, if an employer health insurance plan is valued above the standard plan that most federal workers have, Bowles-Simpson would tax the difference in value. Currently, employees' health care premiums are deducted from their checks before taxes, lowering their taxable income.

 

Business interests and investors would have to pony up too.

Capital gains would be taxed at the rate of ordinary income, not the current 15 percent rate.

Businesses would lose deductions such as writing off the declining value of equipment. Under Bowles-Simpson, corporations could still count on a tax credit for research and development.

Even so, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce issued a positive reaction.

"The U.S. Chamber is encouraging the entire business community not just to calculate the cost of specific deficit reduction proposals to their individual companies, but to weigh the long-term costs to our country, our economy, and future generations if we fail to act," Martin Regalia, the group's chief economist, said in a statement. "All solutions will require shared sacrifices and we must be prepared to make them."

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Posted by biginla at 2:53 PM GMT

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